CPRT - Copart, Inc. Pick

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Research brief

Sep 14, 2026 Morning

03:00 PM UTC

Copart, Inc. CPRT low

CPRT

Conf. Low

Pick Pr. $31.35

Stop Pr. $30.15

Curr. Pr. $31.50

Change +0.46%

Rem. Days 28

Summary

Recommendation: Preserve the authoritative decision to buy CPRT immediately at the synchronized $31.25 quote recorded at 13:13 ET on September 14, 2026, using one slot, equal to 1/50 of fund value. The strategy label is Momentum and confidence is Low. finance.yahoo
Exact tracking horizon: Exit the full position at the first of $30.15, $34.33, or 15:55 ET on October 12, 2026, exactly 28 calendar days after selection. The $32.05 first resistance remains a path diagnostic, not an exit target. finance.yahoo
Authoritative scenario inputs: The preserved target, stop, and time-exit probabilities are 32% / 29% / 39%, with a +0.75% time-exit return assumption and 0.10% friction. These inputs were calibrated through October 19, not October 12.
Material limitation: No supplied synchronized decision recalibrates the authoritative $31.25 entry, $34.33 target, 32/29/39 probabilities, or finalist ranking for the shortened 28-day exit. Therefore, the parent model's +2.33% expected return and +0.66R are five-week comparison outputs and must not be presented as validated four-week estimates.
Edge: A signed strategic acquisition, sufficient financial capacity, accepted near-term support, and an executable structural stop support the selection, while soft current profitability and limited near-term deal accretion cap confidence. sec.govsec.govfinance.yahoo

Why Now

Copart signed a definitive agreement on September 10 to acquire ACV in cash. The agreement combines complementary wholesale-auction platforms and is expected to close by year-end, subject to tender and regulatory conditions. copart

The combination adds dealer-to-dealer wholesale auctions, inspections, pricing, and vehicle data to Copart's salvage-auction network. Management expects the transaction to be neutral to adjusted EPS in the first full ownership year and accretive beginning in fiscal 2028, so the near-term edge is strategic optionality plus accepted support—not an assumed immediate earnings windfall. sec.gov

The authoritative entry evidence is the $31.25 quote at 13:13 ET. The latest completed five-minute bar closed at $31.275 at 13:05 ET, above the approximately $31.06 live session VWAP, with about 5.5 million shares traded. finance.yahoo

The $30.15 stop sits below the $30.28-$30.48 completed-bar support band and the $30.2766 completed-session SMA50. The preserved $34.33 target is the completed August 20 close and lies just below the recent completed-bar high of $34.63. The nearer $32.05 level is the first resistance, not the terminal target. finance.yahoo

Preserved analyst assumption: The 32% target probability was constructed as approximately 59% odds of clearing $32.05 multiplied by 54% conditional odds of reaching $34.33. It was deliberately reduced for CPRT's position below its 200-day average and the acquisition's lack of immediate earnings accretion. finance.yahoosec.gov

Horizon reconciliation: The stop and target remain executable first barriers during the shorter window, but the forced time exit moves from October 19 to October 12. Because the evidence supplies no corresponding probability re-estimation, the 32/29/39 distribution is disclosed as a preserved five-week calibration rather than relabeled as a four-week forecast.

Business And Market Context

Copart operates a salvage-auction network, while ACV contributes dealer-to-dealer wholesale-auction, inspection, pricing, and vehicle-data capabilities. Analyst judgment: Copart's buyers and yards could deepen ACV marketplace liquidity, while ACV could broaden Copart's exposure beyond weaker U.S. insurance volumes. sec.gov

The standalone operating backdrop is mixed. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue rose 2.4% to $1.2 billion, but gross profit fell 5.5%, net income declined 17.4%, and diluted EPS fell 14.6%; full-year revenue rose only 0.4% and EPS declined 2.5%.

Financial capacity is a counterweight: Copart ended July with approximately $1.91 billion of cash and restricted cash, $2.58 billion of held-to-maturity securities, $914 million of total liabilities, and $1.60 billion of fiscal-year operating cash flow. It also spent $1.63 billion on buybacks. Analyst assessment: the cash acquisition is financeable on the supplied evidence but materially changes near-term capital deployment. sec.gov

The broad backdrop was mixed risk-off rotation rather than a confirmed crash or bear market. The September 16 FOMC decision, elevated oil, and a near-5% 10-year yield add shared market-path risk; these are confidence and sizing penalties rather than company-specific hard gates. federalreservfinance.yahoofinance.yahoo

Based on the supplied portfolio, Industrials represent 7.03%, versus 43.43% Technology and 23.56% Healthcare. CPRT does not duplicate an active symbol, so one Industrials slot modestly improves diversification. This is a portfolio-fit benefit, not a reason to relax the stop.

Factor Stack

Factor	Assessment
Catalyst/news edge	Positive, medium strength. The September 10 ACV agreement is objective and strategic, but its first-full-year adjusted-EPS effect is expected to be neutral. sec.gov
Growth and profitability	Negative near term. Revenue grew modestly in the latest quarter while gross profit, net income, and EPS declined.
Valuation	Supportive but not decisive. At the authoritative quote, provider valuation fields were approximately 20.16x trailing earnings and 17.32x forward earnings. finance.yahoo
Momentum and relative strength	Mixed-positive entry signal. The latest completed intraday bar held above session VWAP and price remained above the $30.28-$30.48 support zone; however, CPRT was below its 200-day average and its completed 20-session return lagged SPY while beating XLI. finance.yahoo
Sentiment/social confirmation	Weak corroboration only. Two recent Reddit threads were constructive on the strategic adjacency but debated slower organic growth, weaker profit, return on capital, and delayed accretion; engagement was modest. redditreddit
EPS revisions/estimate direction	Evidence limitation. No complete current sell-side revision history was available. The usable company signal is management's expectation of first-full-year neutrality and fiscal-2028 accretion. sec.gov

Investment Thesis

This is a bounded Momentum trade anchored to the authoritative $31.25 entry, $30.15 stop, $32.05 first resistance, and $34.33 target. The structural downside is 3.52%, while the preserved target offers 9.86% gross upside from the frozen quote. finance.yahoo

Five-week analyst calculation: 0.32 × 9.856% + 0.29 × (-3.520%) + 0.39 × 0.75% - 0.10% ≈ +2.33%; dividing by 3.52% stop risk gives approximately +0.66R. This arithmetic reproduces the authoritative calibration but is not a validated expected return for the earlier October 12 exit.

The best authoritative rejected alternative is SRRK. Its released ISEMBYLD approval is a stronger immediate catalyst, but the refreshed $52.99 quote remained below the approximately $54.05 live approval-session VWAP; its zero-revenue base, $109.9 million quarterly loss, ATM dilution, and 18.46% short float add commercialization and financing risk. Its preserved five-week modeled return was +1.42%, below CPRT's +2.33%. finance.yahoinvestors.scfda.gov

Finalist-audit limitation: JNJ was hard-rejected by the parent because its confirmed October 13 earnings release occurred before the parent's October 19 exit. That event occurs after the required October 12 exit, so the parent rejection does not establish JNJ's status for this shortened horizon. finance.yahoinvestor.jnj No synchronized 28-day rerank at the authoritative 13:13-13:14 quote state was supplied; the report therefore neither promotes JNJ nor fabricates replacement scenario inputs.

Analyst judgment: CPRT remains the selected symbol because that choice is authoritative and its entry, support, and stop were synchronized at the latest supplied freeze. The shorter horizon increases uncertainty about reaching $34.33 and prevents a clean claim that CPRT retains the same modeled advantage by October 12.

Risks And Thesis Breakers

Horizon-model mismatch: The required October 12 time exit is seven days earlier than the calibration end. The preserved target probability, time-exit probability, time-exit return, +2.33% expected return, and finalist ordering have not been validated for that shorter window.
Technical invalidation: The thesis breaks at the first executable regular-session trade at or below $30.15. That level lies beneath the $30.28-$30.48 support band; a breach invalidates the accepted-support premise. finance.yahoo
Resistance and time risk: First resistance is $32.05, materially nearer than the $34.33 target. An earlier forced exit gives the trade less time to clear both the first obstacle and the higher completed-bar target. finance.yahoo
Operating deterioration: Further gross-profit or EPS erosion would weaken the premise that strategic optionality can outweigh current softness. The latest quarter already showed declines in gross profit, net income, and diluted EPS.
Deal and capital-allocation risk: Adverse tender or antitrust developments, worse-than-expected integration costs, weaker synergies, or evidence that the cash transaction strains capital deployment would break the strategic thesis. sec.gov
Liquidity and solvency: Available cash, securities, liabilities, operating cash flow, and market volume do not indicate a current hard failure, but the cash acquisition follows substantial buybacks and reduces capital-allocation flexibility. sec.govfinance.yahoo
Market and gap risk: FOMC, oil, and long-rate volatility can pressure CPRT even if company facts remain intact. federalreservfinance.yahoofinance.yahoo Execution limitation: the plan assumes the first available regular-session fill; an overnight gap may produce a worse fill than $30.15.
Evidence limitations: No complete current sell-side revision history, institutional-positioning series, options-implied move series, or borrow-cost series was available. Social evidence was sparse and self-selected, so it was used only as a sentiment modifier.

Investment Recommendation

Buy one full slot of CPRT immediately at approximately the authoritative $31.25 quote. One slot equals 1/50 of fund value. This is a Low-confidence Momentum position. finance.yahoo

Execute one deterministic first-barrier rule for the entire position:

Sell the full position on the first executable regular-session trade at or below $30.15; if the market gaps below the stop, sell at the opening executable price. Do not average down.
Sell the full position on the first trade at or above $34.33. Do not sell or trim merely because price reaches the $32.05 first resistance.
If neither barrier trades first, sell the full position at 15:55 ET on October 12, 2026, exactly 28 calendar days after selection. Do not trail, extend, or reinterpret the setup.

The entry, stop, target, and probability assumptions are preserved from the authoritative parent decision; only the contractual time exit is shortened. Consequently, this is an executable 28-day truncation of that decision, not a newly calibrated four-week forecast. If execution is materially above $31.25, the stop distance and scenario geometry no longer describe the same trade and require a new full analysis before purchase.